Climate tipping points
By: Mike Ritchie, MRA Consulting Group
One minute Channel 9 is showing pics of people “enjoying the summer-like conditions on Bondi Beach” (in winter), to the next minute the ABC reporting a lack of snow in the ski fields (in winter).
Channel 7 reports bushfires in Tasmanian rainforests in autumn whilst Channel 10 reports droughts in Perth during their rainy season.
It is climate change. Simple. Report it that way!
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But even if they got the reporting of climate change “events” correct, that is not enough.
There is no doubt that climate change ‘events’ are on the increase (fires, floods, droughts) in both frequency and severity. But they are only half the picture and not even the scariest part.
I suspect many people believe that if we get emissions down some time over the next 50 years, we can restore normalcy and these “events” will go away.
But that is to deny the existence of Tipping Points.
Tipping Points are irreversible thresholds, which once crossed, will tip the climate into a new and potentially continuous and self-reinforcing cycle of instability and chaos.
Our economies and our societies will be irrevocably changed.
Tipping Points are rarely reported in the media but are well documented in scientific papers, academic journals and IPCC reports.
We cross one of these and we are in really serious trouble.
And yet we know that we are approaching them- inexorably and with almost wilful belligerence.
Here are some of the main Tipping Point threats as outlined in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6):
Antarctic Ice Shelf
The Antarctic Ice Sheet has lost about 300 billion tonnes of mass per year since 2000. The rate of loss is accelerating and is projected to increase by 200-300% by the end of the 21st century. This could contribute up to 3 meters of sea level rise. If the West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapsed completely, it could contribute up to 10 meters of sea level rise. (Imagine 10 metres in Sydney Harbour or Port Phillip Bay).
North Atlantic Current
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC or also known as the North Atlantic current) transports warm water from the tropics to the North Atlantic. This warm water helps keep Europe warm and habitable. If the AMOC slows or stops flowing Europe and North America will suffer ice age conditions with massive temperature drops, increased flooding, marine ecosystem collapses and the like. The AMOC is weakening (already 15% weaker than 100 years ago) and that is likely to continue.
Ocean acidification
Ocean acidification is caused by the absorption of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere into the ocean. The pH of the ocean has decreased by about 0.1 pH units since the pre-industrial era. Ocean pH is expected to decrease by 0.14-0.35 pH units by the end of the 21st century. This will kill off lots of coral reefs and other calcifying organisms and reduce food availability for billions of people who depend on oceans.
Permafrost
Permafrost is ground that remains frozen. Permafrost contains large amounts of carbon, which is released into the atmosphere when the ground thaws. Permafrost is projected to thaw by 70-100% by the end of the 21st century under a high emissions scenario (close to our current trajectory). The thawing of permafrost could release up to 1,000 gigatons of carbon into the atmosphere causing flooding, land inundation and exacerbating the rate of warming via a self-perpetuating feedback loop.
This is not ‘rocket’ science. It is science. It is obvious and predictable.
It leads us to one irrevocable conclusion – We must rapidly reduce emissions. That means more significant interventions into our economy and a rapid departure from Business as Usual. We must act with urgency.
While Australia represents a small percentage of total global emissions, our per capita emissions are one of the highest. We must set an example, develop technologies, test policy interventions, advocate globally and carry our load. We are not even doing that yet.
We cross one of these thresholds and our world will be so different as to be indescribable.
So what does this mean for our industry. It means we need to get serious quickly about reducing emissions. The waste and recycling sector can have an outsized impact through:
- Maximising the recovery of embodied energy via recycling (worth at least 10 MT/yr CO2-e).
- Minimising landfill emissions by banning organics to landfill (worth 10MT/yr CO2-e going forward).
- Capturing the methane emissions from landfill (from organics landfilled in the past) (worth 11 MT/yr CO2-e).
- Energy from Waste (at least 10MT/yr CO2-e).
- Sequestration of carbon in soil via compost and biochar (virtually unlimited but at least 100 MT/yr CO2-e potential).
- Reuse/remanufacture (no-one has put a convincing estimate on this).
The problem is not the science, the technology nor the engineering. We know how to do these things using existing technology and processes. The problem is the economics. It is just not “worth” it. There are just not enough economic tail winds (return on investment) to do these things across Australia and at scale.
Some companies will have a go, usually at the cutting edge and often at the margins of viability. That is enough to give Ministers a press release and an “announceable”, but it is not enough to capture the huge potential of our industry or to drive “at-scale” reform. Our sector offers emissions reductions and abatement to all other emitting sectors. Other than renewables, no other sector can offer industry wide reductions in emissions.
It is utter madness that governments are not pushing these initiatives hard – with rapid levy reform, infrastructure grants, collection mandates and other economic interventions. We even have a nationally agreed framework called the National Waste Action Plan around which we can all rally.
Step up Anthony Albanese, Tanya Plibersek and Chris Bowen. Step up State Premiers and Environment Ministers. We need to do more, faster.
PS: The media has a responsibility to help everyone to understand this new reality. Please stop reporting “Wonderful swimming and sun-baking conditions at Bondi” (in August) as a good thing. It is not. In all likelihood, and despite the huge drop in temperature in late August, it is a harbinger of a summer that will be hot, dry and fire prone. Australia recorded its hottest-ever winter temperature, with Yampi Sound in Western Australia reaching 41.6C, and 2024 is shaping up to be the hottest year on record.
Mike Ritchie is the Managing Director at MRA Consulting Group.
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